Election Day Media World

Our pundits have spoken!  And today we get to find out what we the people have to say about how the election turns out.

And that means tomorrow (I hope!) we get to judge how well the pundits did at predicting the outcome.

The spread of predictions is pretty wide, with CNBC’s Jim Cramer saying that it will be (in electoral votes) Obama 440, Romney 98.  On the other hand, Dick Morris over at Fox News is calling it at Romney 325, Obama 213.  I don’t really believe that either of these predictions have any basis in reality other than being a wild guess.

To me, the most interesting prediction comes from Nate Silver of the much-discussed FiveThirtyEight blog, which had an impressive record in predicting the 2008 presidential primaries and general election. The blog, which is now run out of the New York Times, is operated by baseball and political statistician Nate Silver. (In case you were wondering, 538 is the total number of votes in the Electoral College.)  What I like about Silver is that he makes a clear prediction based on data (consolidated polling data) and then gives a likelihood of being right.  So, this morning he was predicting Obama 313 , Romney 225, with Obama having a 90.9 % chance of winning. A wide number of mostly conservative critics claim that Silver is letting his own preferences color his predictions, while others claim that poll aggregation simply doesn’t work.

Ezra Klein’s WonkBlog over at the Washington Post has a great collection of pundit predictions, including Klein’s prediction of a relatively close Obama 290, Romney 248.

Want to make your own prediction?  Use this great interactive tool at 270 To Win (You need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency) that lets you assign winners and losers to the electoral map.

And finally, if you don’t know where to vote, this great tool lets you find your polling place anywhere in the country!

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One Response to Election Day Media World

  1. Pingback: Truth 6 – Activism and Analysis are not the Same Thing: Numerical analysis matters | Living in a Media World

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