Truth 6 – Activism and Analysis are not the Same Thing: Numerical analysis matters

Yesterday I posted a number of predictions from pundits about how the presidential election would turn out.  The best predictions did not come from the partisans, they came  from the number crunchers who took a hard look at what the polls and economic data had to say.  They let the numbers say what they said – and their results were remarkably close to what actually happened.  This won’t always be the case.  There’s always a chance of error, but good numbers people try to report that as well.

Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog was just one of many people doing solid statistical analysis about yesterday’s election.  And here’s my takeaway – Don’t be dismissive of what data tell you, just because you don’t like what they say.  Instead, look at them and respond to what they say.  Don’t say their wrong because you don’t like the message. The numbers are not destiny, but they are important evidence.

This entry was posted in Chapter 2 and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Truth 6 – Activism and Analysis are not the Same Thing: Numerical analysis matters

  1. Paul Wice says:

    I love your quote…seems like most polling is always done by those with a bias, including the major networks…my take on results-Romney was not the best candidate for GOP…Not sure who would have been but the Romney problem has always been his changing message and also many perceive he and his wife as “super rich” and out of touch with commoners….Obama (and his family) continues to have charisma

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>