Yesterday I posted a number of predictions from pundits about how the presidential election would turn out. The best predictions did not come from the partisans, they came from the number crunchers who took a hard look at what the polls and economic data had to say. They let the numbers say what they said – and their results were remarkably close to what actually happened. This won’t always be the case. There’s always a chance of error, but good numbers people try to report that as well.
Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog was just one of many people doing solid statistical analysis about yesterday’s election. And here’s my takeaway – Don’t be dismissive of what data tell you, just because you don’t like what they say. Instead, look at them and respond to what they say. Don’t say their wrong because you don’t like the message. The numbers are not destiny, but they are important evidence.